Football Betting System, Predictions and Tips

Free Euro 2012 tip – Spain v Italy

This weeks free under/over 2.5 football betting tip is below:
Europe » Euro 2012
Spain v Italy, Sunday 1st July 2012, 19:45
25 points under 2.5 goals, best odds 1.6 @ Ladbrokes

Spain will hope to record a third straight major tournament victory on Sunday, and enter the Pantheon of truly great footballing nations, as they take on Italy in the final of Euro 2012 in Kiev.

Cesare Prandelli’s Italian side have grown in confidence and stature in every performance.                 In the opening game of Group C they drew 1-1 with Spain, playing a 3-5-2 formation with wing-backs and a packed midfield to combat the domination of Del Bosque’s midfield maestro’s.

Like all great tournament managers, Prandelli has adapted his formation to a 4-4-2 system with a rotating midfield diamond for the last three matches, all wins for the Azzurri, and crucially, all ending in an under 2.5 goal result.

Spain’s dominance and control of possession, which they use as a form of defence and attack, is a style which has been coined under the term “Tiki Taka”, referring to the short, one-touch passes that they consistently and accurately produce for the entirety of the 90 minutes.

Spain’s innate fear of losing the ball and need to control matches through possession, rather than take risks, means they never really create a plethora of goal scoring chances. Usually a 1-0 score-line is sufficient to claim the victory, as they can then “defend” by keeping hold of the ball for the remainder of the game. Apart from Spain’s 4-0 drubbing of a very poor Ireland team, they’ve only found the net four times in their four other matches, whilst conceding only once.

We should see a fascinating tactical battle on Sunday, if not that entertaining a match.                          Prandelli will probably keep faith with his very compact midfield quartet of Pirlo, De Rossi, Marchisio and Montolivo; all centrally minded players who will try to wrestle the ball off their opposite numbers, Xavi, Busquets, Alonso and Iniesta, but also try to play it with the same style and fluidity that we witnessed in their impressive 2-1 semi-final win over favourites, Germany.

With such congestion in the middle of the park, it is possible of course that Del Bosque will spring surprise and play the speedy wingers, Navas and Pedro, and expose the Italian defence down the sides of the pitch. However, the importance of the occasion suggests that he will stick to his favourite line-up and approach to the game, therefore culminating in a low-scoring match with chances at a premium.

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