Football Betting System, Predictions and Tips

Cagliari vs AS Roma – Free Serie A Tip

Out of all the OVER/UNDER goal markets the 2.5 goal margin is the most popular because of the average scores of most football matches.

However, I’ll be having a brief look at the OVER/UNDER 3.5 goal market this week, where there are some basic guidelines to follow if you want to be successful in this fast growing market.

Regarding Under 3.5 goals, it’s best to find a match where one opponent is strong favourites to win because of their status and History, for example, Manchester United. The team they face must be inferior but are playing well and not conceding. This will give you the best possible odds for an Under 3.5 result.

Man United’s home record is littered with 2-0 & 3-0 victories against bottom half of the table sides, last week they just edged to a 4-0 win over Wigan Athletic which would obviously be a losing bet, so choosing the right team in decent form is the key part of this bet.

In the final weeks of last season United only beat Swansea City (who had been playing great possession football all year) 2-0 at Old Trafford, for an Under 3.5 bet this would have seen you get odds against the bookmaker of 2.3 (Euro).

The same criteria applies to teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Arsenal etc – monitor the opponents form and if possible the head to head statistics between the sides.

When looking at Over 3.5 goals, head to head statistics can be the key bit of information; if two clubs are consistently involved in high scoring encounters over six games or more then there is a good chance it will happen again, barring certain circumstances.

You must make sure that the team in the best current goal-scoring form of the two has their first-choice line-up available to them i.e. the players who have been playing so well in the their last 4 or 5 games.

Head to head is only a part of it though; you want to look for a match where at least one of clubs has an attacking philosophy that results in an open football match whenever they take to the pitch.    The way to do this is to research the managers of your chosen clubs. It will probably help if I colour this statement with some specific details so you understand what I mean.

For example, this weekend sees Cagliari host Roma in Italy’s Serie A.  The head to head stats make for beautiful reading:

Last 6 matches
Cagliari

4

2

Roma

01/02/2012

Roma

1

2

Cagliari

11/09/2011

Roma

3

0

Cagliari

22/01/2011

Cagliari

5

1

Roma

11/09/2010

Roma

2

1

Cagliari

09/05/2010

Cagliari

2

2

Roma

06/01/2010

The previous three games at Cagliari’s ground have all been Over 3.5 goals, but this is not the most important factor. Roma re-appointed their Czech coach Zdenek Zeman in June after nearly 13 years away from the Italian Capital.

Zeman is a man who does not believe in defensive structure but instead, exciting attacking fluidity. The Roma and Lazio fans alike, adore him, after he had successful spells at both clubs during the 1990’s. All Roma’s three league games this season have ended in Over 3.5 goal results because Zeman’s formation always leads to chances being created for both teams.

No matter what the balance of the game, Zeman urges his team forward on the counter-attack which means there is always plenty of space on the pitch for both sides to enjoy.

A manager with this kind of philosophy is what you need to look out for when betting on Over 3.5 goals.

Recommend Bet  

Italy Serie A
Cagliari – AS Roma, Sunday, 23 Sep 2012, 14:00
25 points over 3.5 goals, Best Odds 2.3

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