Which is most Profitable Football Betting Market?

I’ve had a look at the betting market payouts as bookies take a different cut depending on the football market (1X2, Under/Overs, AH etc).

If you look at the below stats you’ll see which bets pay out the most to the customer (closer to 100% the better)

Man City v Arsenal

Win-Draw-WIN 97.8%

AH -1 City – 98.6%

BTTS – 97.1%

Double Chance – 96%

Draw No Bet – 95.9%

Over/Under 3.5 – 95.8%

Over/Under 2.5 – 95.1%

Liverpool v West Ham

Win-Draw-WIN 98.8%

BTTS – 97.1%

Double Chance – 96.4%

Draw No Bet – 95.9%

Over/Under 3.5 – 95.7%

AH -1 Liverpool – 95.5%

Over/Under 2.5 – 94.7%

Newcastle v Tottenham

Win-Draw-WIN 98%

AH -1 Tottenham – 97.5%

BTTS – 97.4%

Draw No Bet – 96.4%

Double Chance – 95.8%

Over/Under 2.5 – 95.6%

Over/Under 3.5 – 94.8%

This is pretty much what I would expect which bodes well if you are backing 1X2 bets. Basically, the percentages above are what goes back to customers so if its 97.8%, the bookie takes a 2.2 margin whatever the outcome. 

The higher the bookie margin the harder it is for us to profit on.

The best markets seem to be 1X2 AH and BTTS, Double Chance and DNB also are not too bad.

This is Premier League also as soon as you go to any lower divisions or obscure leagues the percentage the bookies take goes up on ALL markets. 

You can see it all on oddsportal.com

So if you are going to bet on Football I would recommend the following…

  1. Bet on 1X2, BTTS or AH primarily if you can
  2. If not bet on Double Chance or DNB
  3. Bet on the Main Leagues (if you can), generally the top premier leagues (although Scotland prem is not good, and conversely English championship and league 1 & 2 are fine)

Basically, bookies appear to take more money from customers on certain markets, probably a lot to do with liquidity and a lack of confidence in their ability to correctly price up lesser known matches, so they just build in a bigger profit margin to ensure they make a profit.

If you want to bet on something like an Anytime Goalscorer or something more exotic this is something to just judge yourself as its difficult to see on what players the bookmaker makes the edge on this. 

Personally, I think markets such as correct score, first goalscorer, number of cards etc are all difficult and only make sense if you have some specialist knowledge or you know the price you are getting is “value”. If you do have unusual methods on these markets get in touch! As would love to know how others make these kinds of bets work.